
The Grid Interconnection Queue Is the Real AI Compute Constraint
2,060 GW queued, a five-year median wait, and a 13 percent historical completion rate. Why the map of where large-scale compute exists in 2030 is being drawn by grid geography.
Tag

2,060 GW queued, a five-year median wait, and a 13 percent historical completion rate. Why the map of where large-scale compute exists in 2030 is being drawn by grid geography.

Output costs five times input because decode is memory-bound. Batch costs half because utilisation is the provider's central problem. Beneath both sits a floor made of power contracts and grid queues.

Capital, energy times PUE, and overhead, divided by capacity times utilisation. The framework, the multipliers that matter, and the five places the arithmetic reliably breaks.